Note, 3 November 2026

What investigators are checking in the Learjet crash, and what they do not know yet

On 1 November 2026 a Learjet 60 flying from Austin, Texas, to North Eleuthera in the Bahamas went down in Palm Beach County, Florida. All nine people aboard died; our sympathy goes to their families and friends. The NTSB has named no cause and says it will not speculate.

What happened

The crew declared a Mayday at 12:48:28 p.m. Eastern (CNN). The jet fell five miles in about a minute; our Part 2 note reads its ADS-B data. At its first briefing, on 2 November, the NTSB said it would not "speculate about the cause" (UPI).

What the NTSB is checking

The NTSB did not number its checks; these four are our pick from its briefing and the reports on it. None is a cause.

The storm

A National Weather Service pilot advisory in force at the time gave storm tops above 45,000 feet for a wide area (SIGMET 45E), not a reading at the jet; the NTSB puts the jet at about 35,000. CNN reports the plane "passed through a strong cell just before it began suddenly descending". Asked whether it flew through an active thunderstorm, the NTSB said: "We can't confirm that yet." Weather is "a major focus of the investigation" (WFLX).

The ice

The crew reported "light, clear ice that is manageable and moderate turbulence", and minus 47 °C outside (CNN). By our timing of the air traffic audio, that call came about 85 seconds before the Mayday; CNN says about 90. CNN says ice cannot typically form in air below minus 40 °C, but thunderstorm updrafts can carry liquid water droplets up into air that cold.

The tail

On 2 November, asked whether control surfaces such as the horizontal stabilizer, the small wing on the tail, may have come off, the NTSB said: "They may have. We do have some evidence that there was some breakup of the aircraft before impact. We're still seeking to determine that" (livestream). On 3 November it said that on 2 November most of the left elevator, which moves the nose up and down, was found in three pieces 1.3 to 3.8 miles from the crash, and that "important pieces of the aircraft, separated before the impact". Whether losing it helped cause the crash or the forces on the aircraft tore it off, it said, "we don't know that yet" (livestream).

The recorder

Maintenance records say a cockpit voice recorder was installed (CNN). "What we don't know is whether that recorder was still on board," the NTSB said, and it is "very hopeful that we can recover it." Such a recorder captures the crew's voices and other sounds in the cockpit (NTSB). The NTSB mentioned no flight data recorder.

What comes next

On other crashes' pages the NTSB says a preliminary report is expected "within 30 days" (ERA25MA106); this crash's page does not yet say so. The report holds facts only. Two recent reports came 25 days or fewer, and 34 days, after their crashes. The final report, with a probable cause, is expected in 12 to 24 months (NTSB). This note is current to 4 p.m. Eastern on 3 November, after the NTSB's second briefing.

Our take

The NTSB cannot yet say whether the jet's voice recorder was aboard. A record you cannot confirm was there is a record you cannot use. In the telemetry we build, a device should report that its log exists and when it last wrote, and a second record should live somewhere else. This is about records, not about the cause of this accident.

About the films

Our Part 1 follows the script of Ceramico's Part 1, with two lines corrected. Part 3 is ours, on the structure of Ceramico's Part 3. The jet is drawn from Bombardier's three-view, without registration or livery. The storm, the rain, the ice on the wing and the search rings are illustrations. The route on the map is ADS-B data from adsb.lol, on a Natural Earth map. Nothing shows the impact or anyone aboard.

Transcript

What made this jet fall five miles in about a minute? Nine people died, and the NTSB won't guess why. But here are four things it's checking.

One: the storm. Storm tops that day reached forty-five thousand feet, ten thousand above the jet. And CNN says it flew through a strong cell just before the drop.

Two: the ice. About eighty-five seconds before the Mayday, the crew called it light, clear ice, manageable. It was minus forty-seven Celsius outside, where ice rarely forms. CNN says storm updrafts can still make it.

Three: the tail. Asked if part of the tail came off, the NTSB first said: "They may have." A day later it said most of the left elevator, which moves the nose up and down, was found in three pieces. One point three to three point eight miles away, so it came off before impact, the NTSB says. Why, it doesn't know yet.

Four: the recorder. Maintenance records say one was installed. The NTSB doesn't know yet if it was aboard.

No answer yet. The NTSB's first report, facts only, usually comes in about a month. Follow, and we'll read it with you.

All notes